It looks as if maybe Joss Whedon was right - the next wave of space exploration will be Chinese. Not that I have a problem with that - I can already swear in English, Spanish, Yiddish, and Russian, I might as well add Cantonese.
I'm not so sure about that... i think the next wave will be everyone. Probably privately owned and funded.
i mean, look at the prior waves of exploration and colonisation in human history. First comes the government sponsored explorers, then a few private individuals, which then leads to round of colonisation by groups which is usually private but with some government sponsorship and/or involvement, then you get a round of individuals selling up and moving out looking for a place to settle.
Right now, were at step 2... just after the usual long hiatus between explorers. [how long was it between Columbus and the pilgrims after all.] Things should start happening pretty quickly now, with multiple groups heading on out. Some government funded, some private, some explorers, some colonists.
Well, from 1492 to 1620 was only 128 years, and things tend to happen a lot faster than that nowadays. It appears that Elon Musk and Ted Branson are vying for the Delos D. Harriman position - I just saw something about expensive space tourism in a printed magazine. I hope that means I'll be able to hold my century party somewhere in space in 2047!
But many, many SF stories have been written based on the idea that early space exploration would be like the settlment of the Americas - various political fringe groups, weirdo cult religions, and similar bunches of crazies would be the first to look for someplace to practice their weirdness, and we'd wind up with planets run by vegetarians, nudists, Amish, old-fashioned utopianists, and people who worship dead pop stars.
As you say, things happen fast.. if Elon sticks to his schedule, the first Mars ship will life year after next, and he's known for doing his best to get ahead of the clock.
First run of colonisation will be Very Serious People, mark my words.. the second wave about five years later will be the nut-balls. Branson and Musk seem to have a gentleman's agreement. As far as I can tell, Branson gets the moon and Earth orbit tourism, Musk has Mars, and earth orbit commercial use. Anything further out seems to be fair game for whoever gets there first. and Branson's plans don't seem to be as advanced.
That said, that could change overnight.. and Musk has made noises about lunar orbital flights and tourism. So...
But by 2047, we'll have a place to hold the party, no problem. it might even have gravity. And if I have my say, it'll also be the first FTL launch party.
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i mean, look at the prior waves of exploration and colonisation in human history. First comes the government sponsored explorers, then a few private individuals, which then leads to round of colonisation by groups which is usually private but with some government sponsorship and/or involvement, then you get a round of individuals selling up and moving out looking for a place to settle.
Right now, were at step 2... just after the usual long hiatus between explorers. [how long was it between Columbus and the pilgrims after all.] Things should start happening pretty quickly now, with multiple groups heading on out. Some government funded, some private, some explorers, some colonists.
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But many, many SF stories have been written based on the idea that early space exploration would be like the settlment of the Americas - various political fringe groups, weirdo cult religions, and similar bunches of crazies would be the first to look for someplace to practice their weirdness, and we'd wind up with planets run by vegetarians, nudists, Amish, old-fashioned utopianists, and people who worship dead pop stars.
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First run of colonisation will be Very Serious People, mark my words.. the second wave about five years later will be the nut-balls. Branson and Musk seem to have a gentleman's agreement. As far as I can tell, Branson gets the moon and Earth orbit tourism, Musk has Mars, and earth orbit commercial use. Anything further out seems to be fair game for whoever gets there first. and Branson's plans don't seem to be as advanced.
That said, that could change overnight.. and Musk has made noises about lunar orbital flights and tourism. So...
But by 2047, we'll have a place to hold the party, no problem. it might even have gravity. And if I have my say, it'll also be the first FTL launch party.
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We haven't gotten to a Columbus level of things yet.
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