ext_99400 ([identity profile] stickmaker.livejournal.com) wrote in [personal profile] kengr 2015-10-08 09:14 pm (UTC)


What do you mean by "here"? (Not a snarky question; what part of the world are you referencing?) Violent crime in the US as a whole has been trending down since the early Seventies. Much of that, of course, was due to the high level of violence from protests against the Vietnam War and for civil rights fading, but even once we were out of that period a slower decline in violence has continued. Naturally, there are hot spots which are worse than average and occasional periods which run opposite to the trend. (I used to work with trendline analysis for a living.) Interestingly, short-term increases often follow incidents which are highly publicized.

I recently saw a graph which showed a sharp uptick in violent crime after the end of every war the US has been involved in. That contributed to the early Seventies maximum and some more recent upward blips. As you touched on, there's also a strong positive correlation between an increase in average income and a decrease in violent crime. The better the economy does the lower the crime rate and vice versa. This applies both overall and to specific regions.

From what I have read, the recently touted increase in police officer deaths was actually a return to what has been typical in recent years, because 2014 was a record low. We should, of course, strive to return to and exceed that record low, but this information puts the increase in proper perspective.

When quoting the number of murders you have to be careful about what source you use. Gun control advocates quote 32,000 "gun murders" in the US every year. That's actually the total number of shooting homicides (willful taking of life). According to the US Department of Justice roughly half of all fatal shootings in the US are ruled legally justified. (Naturally, I can't find my bookmark for the DOJ page and Google is being uncooperative so I can't give a firm percentage or a reference.)

We definitely need to work on the violent tendencies of so many in the US, but the situation isn't as bad as some people portray it.

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