... but rather obvious. It's sorta equivalent to the old saying: "The race may not always go to the swift, nor the battle to the strong... but that's the way to bet." Similarly, yes, someone may be following accurate logic down a wrong path, and another reaching the right conclusions through completely erroneous means, but if you're going to have to make a call, the logical approach is more likely to be right. Especially if it's a COMPREHENSIVE logical approach; the usual way in which someone "goes wrong with confidence" is by narrowly defining their problem space and ignoring crucial facts just outside of the domain they want to consider.