siliconshaman: black cat against the moon (Default)
siliconshaman ([personal profile] siliconshaman) wrote in [personal profile] kengr 2021-01-06 01:53 am (UTC)

and remember, that's before any of the new strains have really taken hold. They may or may not be any more lethal, but they are definitely more transmissible which means the number of infections will go up exponentially, and that means the total number of deaths will increase even if the percentage stays the same.

So far in the uK, we're at the start of that curve, and we've already hit 1 in 50 people of the entire population are infected. So, 3% of that number will die within the next two weeks. 1.4 million infected, 42,000 deaths per week.

And that's with every sensible precaution.

Doing the maths for the USA... with an r number of 7, starting from zero, and with the "precautions" taken so far, I'd estimate that ~50% of your 330 million will be infected within eight to ten weeks, plus or minus 3 weeks.

The vaccine has come too late for the USA. It's too little, far, far too late. Your health care system is already overcapacity, and it will unable to cope with the new surge when it arrives, as it will soon. [there are already cases of the NV-covid-19 being reported over there.]

Those folks who are saying it's fake, or it's not as bad are scared. They're denying reality because they've intuited at some level what the possible outcome is... and they can't face it.

And they're not wrong to be scared.


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